Saturday 1 January 2011

2011 - Realistic Predictions

Two things are certain about 2011. It will be a much worse year than 2010, and a much better year than 2012. Other than that it is difficult to get into specifics. However there are some things which I can say about the future with relative certainty. Here is a list of a few basics:
1. Commodity prices will go up. I predict most useful commodity prices (i.e. prices of raw resources like cotton, wheat, or oil) will go up by 50-100% in 2011. This is due mostly to grandiose inflation, but also to trends like hoarding goods and less international trade. Gold and other precious metals will also go up, probably at least 30%. All this depends on how soon China begins to dump US debt.
2. US bond prices will fall (might collapse!). If China does begin to dump US debt in Europe (as indicators have been showing) and diversifying into the Euro or if China allows its currency to appreciate in value we will see a collapse in US government bond prices of an unprecedented proportion.
3. The curtailing of liberties will continue. I expect all "War on Terror" measures to increase due to government scare tactics. I wouldn't be surprised if soon there will be a complete ban on bringing any liquids at all onto airplanes or some crazy luggage inspections and even more personal screenings in all public places.
All these "good things" will of course lead to other things like increased crime rates and public unrest. But I'm sure out overlords will feel that's a small price to pay for their domination over us.
In an extreme assessment, of course, this year could be the year of the collapse of the Euro and the Dollar. This is quite possible, but I think not probable. More likely that this will happen in 2012 or 2013. I have observed that governments go to incredible lengths in order to save themselves and saving the Dollar and the Euro is key to a lot of governments. Maybe gold confiscation a la Roosevelt is on its way?

But who worries about such petty things as life, liberty, and property! Why don't we follow those who shout boldly "Après nous, le déluge!" and run on to hack at windmills! Our leaders just need to remember whose mouth those words came out of. His Highness Louis XV didn't end up doing too well in the end... So maybe instead of attacking climate change and the glass ceiling our leaders could please turn to the real problem at hand?

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